Krugergold Finance

Buy To Let Fever(theukhousingbubble)

What should a mortgage lender do when a housing bubble is about to burst? Should it a) avoid lending to dubious borrowers with an uncertain credit history or b) accelerate lending to speculative borrowers engaged in activities with a high risk of capital loss? This question shouldn’t be a difficult one, yet UK banks seem to be picking option b.

World Without Oil Game(via o’reilly)

Last night at midnight, the alternate reality game (ARG for short) World Without Oil launched. In the game, the world has hit peak oil and there are news reports of crises from around the world. The goal of the game is to get real people around the world to start thinking about life without oil. To get them to answer questions like: How will they cope? What will they have to sacrifice? What can they do to help the world?

Continue reading ‘Links - 01/05/07′

Well my house price cartoon has been picked up by a couple of major sites, so i’m getting a fairly hefty traffic spike. This spike is also sending me into the “fastest growing blogs” and “top posts” lists on wordpress.com. Welcome everybody who hasn’t been here before. Here are a few articles for a taster of what the site is about:

5 ways to make money in a falling housing market

Iran and Oil

Money Flow Chart

13 things people worry about too much

Why you shouldn’t turn your hobby into a business

Making Money on the internet(thisismoney)

Believe it or not, there are companies out there that really do value you as a customer. In fact some are willing to pay you to buy the goods and services that you would spend money on anyway.

Sell your house in 60 days(moneycrashers)

Do you have what it takes to sell your house in less than 60 days? Do you believe that it can be done? Many people begin to wonder about houses that stay on the market for longer than 90 days. They start assuming that something is wrong with it or the seller is unwilling to negotiate. The ideal time frame would be to spend 4 - 5 weeks of very aggressive marketing and then the next 3 to 4 weeks working out the mortgage qualification, negotiations, home inspection, and closing. Continue reading ‘Links - 20/04/07′

Diversification(GettingGreen)

We all know that if we want to have any sort of true wealth we must do much more than work and put our money under a mattress. We all know that we have to do some investing, but if you invest without understanding, you are probably better off shoving it all under your mattress! One of the most fundamental ideas of investing is that of diversification. It may seem a little simple to some seasoned investors, but it’s still worth wholly understanding.

Domain buying for cash(artofmoney)

Domaining is the online equivalent of a real estate investor speculating in raw land. Even though it can be one of the most lucrative and the simplest and easiest forms of Internet businesses it doesn’t get that much attention.My guess about why that is would be that it is too simple. It doesn’t really take a guru to package up a $150 oops $147 eBook to tell you what to do. You can understand the basic concepts in about 20 minutes; from there it just takes a few tools a bankroll of some kind and you can be up and running in an hour.

Continue reading ‘Links -19/04/07′

Oil field analysis(theoildrum)

Before we go on, I’d like to stress, especially for Euan’s benefit, that with all these visualizations: they have been scaled to fit on your computer screen. Ghawar is really much bigger than your computer screen. And in particular, the scaling in the horizontal direction is much more pronounced than the scaling in the vertical direction. That “cliff” on the eastern flank is really a slow rise that goes on for several miles at only a few degrees angle. However, it’s very likely that even though the scales are adjusted, the shape is accurate, since it can be determined with great precision by seismic surveys.

Peak oil for cultural change(Courier Press)

Humans have for all practical purposes found, drilled, pumped and refined half of the crude oil on the planet — the easiest half: 900 billion barrels — so far this century. What’s left are declining fields with hard-to-extract heavy (sour) crude, oil shale and tar sands. These will require ever more energy to extract and will approach a negative net energy result.

Negotiate a property bargain(rodthomasblog)

Never underestimate the power and potential of a good negotiator. As a property investor, it is absolutely vital that you hone your negotiation skills to make sure that you get the deal you want - every time. Being unaware of negotiation tactics is a real blunder for the modern investor. Even if you are not fully confident in using hard negotiation tactics, it is absolutely vital that you understand what the other party is doing and how they are behaving.

Bee Afraid(celsias) (via rondam)

The sad mystery surrounding the humble honeybee - which is a vital component in $14bn-worth of US agriculture - is beginning to worry even the highest strata of the political class in Washington.

Free Books(friedbeef)

In our fast paced world of email, and RSS feeds, sometimes it’s best to just slow down and read a good book…but if you’re unwilling to shell out big bucks for the latest bestseller - try out these great resources, and read to your hearts content!

Iran nuclear plans(FT)

Iran’s president has promised to disclose news about Iran’s nuclear programme when he visits its uranium enrichment facility on Monday where the West says Tehran is mastering the skills needed to make atomic bombs.

Aging population are wealthy(firstrung)

The UK’s over 50s are living a dream life that is the envy of the younger generation but may never be attained by them, according to a major new report commissioned by FTSE 100 life and pensions company Friends Provident.

£459bn crash(express)

THE BUBBLE is about to burst on Britain’s booming property market. Experts fear a crash is coming that could wipe at least £450billion off the value of the country’s housing stock.

No crash, yet(guardian)

It’s the time of year estate agents love. Easter, traditionally, is when the market comes alive after the winter lull; the sales particulars are ready for eager house hunters; the properties have been spring-cleaned and given a lick of paint.

Now that it looks like the captured/arrested (delete as politically acceptable) British servicemen are to be released - how does this effect the oil price?

(click for full size version)

Oddly enough - the oil price dropped quite heavily yesterday, the markets probably reacting to the change in stance by Iran and assuming that tensions had been reduced. The news today (the 4th) that the Brits are to be released seemed to make little or no difference to the price of crude, leaving it 50 cents or so down on the day.

Continue reading ‘Thoughts on Iran and Oil’

Hedge funds negative on equities and dollar(FT)

As was the case in March, a big majority of managers - 69 per cent - said they expect the S&P 500 to end April lower, vs 23 per cent higher and 8 per cent unchanged. The majority of the managers also maintained a pessimistic view on the dollar, as 54 per cent report a bearish position, vs 23 per cent bullish and 23 per cent neutral.

Iran crisis effects Asia(Jakartapost)

The crisis also brings into focus Asia’s growing reliance on oil and natural gas supplies from the volatile Gulf region and the economic and political repercussions of this dependence. Asia’s export-oriented but oil-short economies are tied to the fortunes of the Gulf by an energy lifeline. Both regions are integral parts of a vast conveyor belt of seaborne commerce that runs between the Indian and Pacific oceans.

more after the jump

Continue reading ‘Links - 04/04/07′

New Century Financial goes under(BBC)

New Century Financial, one of the largest sub-prime lenders in the US, has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy. New Century sought protection from creditors after it was forced by its backers to repurchase billions of dollars worth of bad loans.

Subprime mortgage bond sales plummet(bloomberg)

Sales of bonds backed by subprime mortgages are tumbling as investors and bankers, concerned about rising delinquency rates, pull back from what had been one of Wall Street’s fastest growing businesses. About $79.3 billion of securities backed mainly by loans to people with poor credit or high amounts of debt were issued this year, down 37 percent from $125 billion in the same period last year, according to a March 30 Citigroup Inc. report.

Mining Reopens(BBC)

Hatfield Colliery near Doncaster, which closed in 1994 when the coal industry was privatised, becomes the ninth deep shaft coal mine operational in the UK. Rising prices of coal and other forms of energy on world markets have made mining a realistic prospect again.

Stocks are cheap(wisebread)

The ten year bond in the US is currently yielding 4.71%. The current forward PE is around 15 which results in a stock yield of 6.71%. Not exactly but I’m using their numbers. So you can invest in a bond and get 4.71% or stocks and ‘get’ 6.71%.

Sensible survival Advice(conservemagazine)

“As we begin to shift back to a more nature-based life rhythm, following the seasons and the flow of the day, we’re going to find we have more time. We’ll have time to do skills like painting, knitting and art that we have lost. It’s going to create a happier population.”

Key Reversal for gold(goldprice)

Even if it had been a key reversal today, that would only mark the first half of a key reversal: break into new low territory for the move & a higher close, followed by a higher close the next day. Numbers I am watching are 667 for gold and 1340 for silver. Metals need to clear those levels this week.

Twelve Choruses
Inflation
Spread Betting
Positioning For Opportunities
Investment Themes part 1
Investment Themes part 2

Defend Your Identity(yourcreditadvisor)

As soon as you discover that your wallet has been stolen, or if a collection agency calls about a debt that you don’t owe, or you’re contacted to verify a loan that you didn’t authorize, take a deep breath, grab a piece of paper and a pencil, and begin to document all communication and actions.

Banking Glitch(FT)

Up to 400,000 people will fail to receive their salary payments as usual today owing to a glitch with the UK’s key banking processing system.On Thursday night it emerged that a large number of UK salary payments have not cleared through the BACS system – the central clearing house for automated payments – in time to land in customers accounts before the weekend. The problem has affected both customers who are paid monthly and those who are paid weekly.

Oil surges on Iran tensions(reuters)

Oil prices surged 3 percent as a standoff over British sailors in Iranian custody escalates supply concerns. Iran is the world’s 4th largest oil exporter. Concerns over the possible loss of around 2.2 million barrels per day are keeping the markets on edge.

US economy on track despite housing(reuters)

Problems in the U.S. subprime mortgage market should not spread and the main risk remains inflation, top Federal Reserve policy-makers said on Thursday in remarks signaling no interest rate cut soon.

Top 10 positions for which employers seek workers(marketwtch)

Overall, 41% of firms surveyed said they’re struggling to find qualified workers for at least one position, according to the survey of 2,400 U.S. firms.The survey asked each company, “Are you having difficulty filling jobs due to lack of available talent?”If they said yes, the survey asked, “What is the one job you are having the most difficulty filling?”

(Not?)Profiting on Foreclosures(yahoo)

As interest rates rise, more homeowners are falling into foreclosure. That is what is prompting the wave of bargain-hunting investors now descending on courthouse auctions across the country. “It’s just crazy. We have 100 houses [at auction] each week, when we used to have 10 or so,”

Gas price storm(Marketwatch)

Dark clouds may be on the horizon soon however as another hurricane season approaching fast. By most estimates this year may not be as tame as 2006 was for the Gulf Coast and the energy markets. The hurricanes of 2004 and 2005 destroyed much of the gulf coast and created havoc in big energy states like Louisiana and Texas. If the forecasts are to be believed, 2007 could be even worse.

Brummie Bourse(FT)

The long-defunct Birmingham Stock Exchange is set to be reborn this summer as an online trading facility in the shares of West Midlands companies that are too small to list in London, reports the FT. The new exchange, Investbx, “will be more like Ebay than the London Stock Exchange”, according to its sponsor Advantage West Midlands, a regional development agency. If Investbx turns out to be a success it is likely to be copied by other UK regions.

Gold short term trend lower(goldprice.org)

GOLD PRICE made a low today at 655. It is in a correction now, having apparently topped yesterday (that leaves 667 as the upside point to pass). Next few days gold should trend lower.

Hedge fund insurance(FT)

Banks are lining up to offer punters the chance to predict the next hedge fund disaster, the FT reports. A small but growing number of structured products allow sophisticated investors to bet against a hedge fund implosion as part of efforts by investment banks to reduce their exposure to extreme events in the sector, the report says.

Start of US Bear(bloomberg)

“We’re right where the market would usually be at the start of a bear market,” Faber said in an interview from Copenhagen. “Financial stocks are not performing well and this is usually a bad indicator for the market.”

Urging Lending Restraint(reuters)

Recent market turmoil serves as a warning that a significant market correction is likely within the next 12 months, Citibank chairman William Rhodes said, urging restraint in lending and investing.